Sample #1247
Trump’s early morning tweet: “In many places the same person in California votes many times.”
One of the central claims of President Trump’s “Spygate” tweetstorm on Sunday was that “millions” of people are voting “illegally” in California.
Not only is there no evidence of this, the president offered no explanation of why he believes this is the case. He did not mention any sources of his information.
In many places the same person votes many times.
Voter fraud is a myth — but a powerful one.
In reality, voter fraud is so rare that it is nearly impossible to find a documented case in the United States. This hasn’t stopped politicians, conservative pundits and talk show hosts from using the specter of widespread voter fraud to cast doubt on the validity of elections and push voter ID laws that make it harder for millions of people to vote.
Trump has previously made a claim about millions of people voting illegally in California, but he has not offered evidence to back up the claim.
We reached out to the White House for support for Trump’s tweets, but they did not respond.
But there’s another, more complicated question here: Just because no one has found a case of voter fraud in the way Trump described, does that mean no such case exists?
The answer to that question is far less simple.
Why Trump’s claim is difficult to prove
There is a lot of public data about the American voting system. It is available from state election officials and collected and shared by the federal government. And for the most part, that data is very granular.
But, as explained by election law expert Rick Hasen, the data doesn’t show how people vote. Instead, it shows things like when and where they voted, who they voted for and which voting machine they used.
This means we don’t have a clear picture of how people vote, let alone how they voted in multiple states.
As Hasen explained to us, this is not a failure of the data.
“Most of this data is publicly available and most of it is voter registration data,” he said. “And when we talk about illegal voting, we are not talking about impersonation of a voter at a polling place. That’s what most people think of when they think of voter fraud. But the real problem is in-person voter fraud is very rare.”
When people talk about voter fraud, they often mean voting under the name of a dead person or voting multiple times under different names, something that is also very difficult to pull off. But when a state detects an allegation of a voter fraud problem, it usually involves people who have moved to a new jurisdiction, have died or were felons who shouldn’t have voted.
“This is the more common type of voter fraud, but there is no good way to check for it in the voter registration system,” Hasen said.
Trump’s voter fraud claim doesn’t make sense
The president’s claim that people are voting illegally in California also makes little sense.
The state has some of the strictest voting laws in the country. In addition to requiring voter ID, it conducts routine audits and has one of the most expansive and thorough monitoring systems of any state in the country.
Moreover, California is a reliably Democratic state that regularly votes for Democratic presidential candidates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by more than 3.4 million votes, the widest margin of any state.
California also holds its presidential primary in June, making it almost impossible to vote in the state’s primary and vote again in the general election in November.
That would be very difficult to pull off in California, but that’s only one of the many issues with Trump’s claim.
Finally, the president’s accusation doesn’t make sense because it suggests that millions of people would have to be voting illegally in the state for his claim to be true.
According to the most recent data from the state, there were 19.4 million registered voters in California.
If each of those people voted just once, and we don’t know who they voted for or what machine they used, that means that millions of people would have to vote illegally in California for Trump’s claim to be true.
We don’t know how many people voted in the 2016 election in California, let alone how many people voted multiple times.
Why this is important
This is not to say that there aren’t issues with the American voting system.
There are serious issues with voter disenfranchisement, specifically with minority voters and people with felony convictions.
To address this problem, activists and voters have called for reforms that would make it easier for more people to vote, including automatic voter registration.
But that’s not what Trump is talking about.
He is peddling a myth to support his claim that millions of people illegally voted in the 2016 election. And he is continuing to do so long after he secured the presidency.
One of the central claims of President Trump’s “Spygate” tweetstorm on Sunday was that “millions” of people are voting “illegally” in California.
Not only is there no evidence of this, the president offered no explanation of why he believes this is the case. He did not mention any sources of his information.
In many places the same person votes many times.
Voter fraud is a myth — but a powerful one.
In reality, voter fraud is so rare that it is nearly impossible to find a documented case in the United States. This hasn’t stopped politicians, conservative pundits and talk show hosts from using the specter of widespread voter fraud to cast doubt on the validity of elections and push voter ID laws that make it harder for millions of people to vote.
Trump has previously made a claim about millions of people voting illegally in California, but he has not offered evidence to back up the claim.
We reached out to the White House for support for Trump’s tweets, but they did not respond.
But there’s another, more complicated question here: Just because no one has found a case of voter fraud in the way Trump described, does that mean no such case exists?
The answer to that question is far less simple.
Why Trump’s claim is difficult to prove
There is a lot of public data about the American voting system. It is available from state election officials and collected and shared by the federal government. And for the most part, that data is very granular.
But, as explained by election law expert Rick Hasen, the data doesn’t show how people vote. Instead, it shows things like when and where they voted, who they voted for and which voting machine they used.
This means we don’t have a clear picture of how people vote, let alone how they voted in multiple states.
As Hasen explained to us, this is not a failure of the data.
“Most of this data is publicly available and most of it is voter registration data,” he said. “And when we talk about illegal voting, we are not talking about impersonation of a voter at a polling place. That’s what most people think of when they think of voter fraud. But the real problem is in-person voter fraud is very rare.”
When people talk about voter fraud, they often mean voting under the name of a dead person or voting multiple times under different names, something that is also very difficult to pull off. But when a state detects an allegation of a voter fraud problem, it usually involves people who have moved to a new jurisdiction, have died or were felons who shouldn’t have voted.
“This is the more common type of voter fraud, but there is no good way to check for it in the voter registration system,” Hasen said.
Trump’s voter fraud claim doesn’t make sense
The president’s claim that people are voting illegally in California also makes little sense.
The state has some of the strictest voting laws in the country. In addition to requiring voter ID, it conducts routine audits and has one of the most expansive and thorough monitoring systems of any state in the country.
Moreover, California is a reliably Democratic state that regularly votes for Democratic presidential candidates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by more than 3.4 million votes, the widest margin of any state.
California also holds its presidential primary in June, making it almost impossible to vote in the state’s primary and vote again in the general election in November.
That would be very difficult to pull off in California, but that’s only one of the many issues with Trump’s claim.
Finally, the president’s accusation doesn’t make sense because it suggests that millions of people would have to be voting illegally in the state for his claim to be true.
According to the most recent data from the state, there were 19.4 million registered voters in California.
If each of those people voted just once, and we don’t know who they voted for or what machine they used, that means that millions of people would have to vote illegally in California for Trump’s claim to be true.
We don’t know how many people voted in the 2016 election in California, let alone how many people voted multiple times.
Why this is important
This is not to say that there aren’t issues with the American voting system.
There are serious issues with voter disenfranchisement, specifically with minority voters and people with felony convictions.
To address this problem, activists and voters have called for reforms that would make it easier for more people to vote, including automatic voter registration.
But that’s not what Trump is talking about.
He is peddling a myth to support his claim that millions of people illegally voted in the 2016 election. And he is continuing to do so long after he secured the presidency.